Correct score bets are undeniably popular in football, but some may dismiss them as mug bets. However, certain types of correct score bets can yield decent profits if approached strategically.
Understanding Odds vs. Chance
A key principle in successful betting is finding value bets where the odds of winning are better than the chances of winning. Correct score betting odds are typically based on each team’s chances of winning, rather than their scoring habits. This presents an opportunity to gain an edge over bookmakers.
For teams with an equal chance of winning, the correct score odds may not accurately reflect their scoring tendencies. Focusing on such discrepancies can give you an advantage.
Concentrate on Specific Scorelines
While smaller scorelines may offer lower odds, they often provide better value. If you predict a low-scoring game, there are only four possible outcomes: 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, and 1-1.
On the other hand, high-scoring games have numerous permutations. Betting on a favorite like 1-0 may offer odds around 6/1, while riskier scorelines like 3-2 could be around 25/1. Despite the longer odds, concentrating on smaller scorelines like 1-0 can be more profitable due to their higher success rate.
Bore Draw Refund
Focusing on low-scoring games can also benefit from the “bore draw refund” offered by many bookmakers. If a game ends 0-0, your stake is refunded. This refund is particularly helpful when betting on a 1-0 or 1-1 outcome, as the main threat to your bet’s success is likely a 0-0 scoreline.
Look Beyond the Premier League
Predicting correct scores in the Premier League can be challenging due to its open and high-scoring nature. Instead, consider leagues and countries known for tighter matches. Leagues in countries like Italy, France, Greece, Poland, Israel, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Turkey, and Slovakia often see lower-scoring games.
Be Selective and Analytical
With numerous leagues to consider, be selective in your choices and focus on the strongest bets. Analyze team form and scoring records to identify potential 1-0 winners.
By mastering correct score bets in football and applying these strategies, you can improve your chances of success and increase your profitability.
Cross Doubles: A Strategic Approach to Correct Score Betting
Cross doubles can be a smart strategy in certain cases, but it requires a solid strike rate due to the combined odds usually being around 2/1. When analyzing the weekly form, you might come across matches that seem highly likely to end as either 1-0 or 1-1. For these situations, cross doubles can be one of the best bets:
- Match A: 1-0/1-1
- Match B: 1-0/1-1
With cross doubles, you’ll place four bets, and the combined odds will be around 30/1 (a conservative estimate based on the odds you receive). Moreover, remember that if your games are covered by the 0-0 refund offer, you effectively have three outcomes covered in each match with just four bets.
Lucky 15s: Amplifying Correct Score Bets
Combining correct scores with another so-called mug bet, like a lucky 15, can be highly effective. In a lucky 15, you receive a bonus of double the odds on one winner (sometimes even triple the odds with generous bookmakers). Here’s an example: if you back four 1-0 correct score bets in a $100 lucky 15, all at 6/1, and you get just one winner, you’ll only lose $200 on your bet.
Considering the potential returns from picking 2 or 3 correct results, even if you’ve only got all correct once in about 100 attempts, the winnings can be substantial (with a 4-fold alone paying about 3500/1). In practice, getting 3 correct results several times, 2 correct results frequently, and occasionally no correct results still offer profitable outcomes.
Conclusion: An Effective Correct Score Betting Strategy
Whether you find one strong correct score bet each week and place a single bet or identify four potential winners to include in a lucky 15, backing low scores in the correct score market can be a successful strategy, especially when focusing on lesser-known leagues. With cross doubles and lucky 15s, you can amplify your correct score bets and enhance your overall profitability.